EUA prices have experienced significant growth over Q3 2026, as higher gas prices forced energy producers to partially switch back to coal, driving a stronger demand for CO2 emission allowances. In addition to this, as summer was historically hot, energy demand for cooling and air conditioning skyrocketed, leading to an increased demand for EUAs.

The third quarter of 2026 marks a change in rhythm following a sharp price rally in Q2. Rather than a continued run-up in prices, the feedstock and biofuel complex spent much of Q3 digesting the inventories built earlier in the year, as market participants who had positioned for stronger 2026 mandates found themselves working through a system that was, for the moment, comfortably supplied.

The third quarter of 2026 confirmed that biofuels are a fundamentally policy-driven market, with regulation continuing to do more to shape demand that the underlying fuel economics. In Europe, the phase-out of double-counting for advanced biofuels moved closer to reality following the German and Dutch policy amendments approved earlier in the year.

Q3 2026 was defined less by dramatic price swings and more by a continued shift in market structure toward integrity and standardisation. The quarter’s headline development came right at its close, when the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) recognised Verra’s VCS Version 5 as CCP-Eligible on September 2.